Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Burqa not welcome in France
France is home to Western Europe's largest Islamic community, with some five million Muslims living there. The President of France Nicolas Sarkozy Monday, in a speech to a joint session of both houses of the Parliament of France, stated that the burqa "will not be welcome on the territory of the French Republic".
A burqa (also transliterated burkha, burka or burqua from Arabic: برقع burqu‘) is an enveloping outer garment worn by women in some Islamic traditions for the purpose of cloaking the entire body. The garb covers a woman's body from head to toe, with a mesh over the eyes so that the wearer may see.
In the speech, which was boycotted by the Green and Communist parties, Sarkozy said that "We cannot accept, in our country, women imprisoned behind a mesh, cut off from society, deprived of all identity. That is not the French Republic's idea of women's dignity." He stated that the burqa "is not a sign of religion, it is a sign of subservience."
Sarkozy himself stated that he was calling for a public debate. "A debate has to take place and all views must be expressed.", he said. "What better place than Parliament for this?" Sarkozy called for the public debate to focus on these issues, and not to become a debate over Islam itself. "We must not fight the wrong battle," he said. "In the Republic, the Muslim faith must be respected as much as other religions."
A burqa (also transliterated burkha, burka or burqua from Arabic: برقع burqu‘) is an enveloping outer garment worn by women in some Islamic traditions for the purpose of cloaking the entire body. The garb covers a woman's body from head to toe, with a mesh over the eyes so that the wearer may see.
In the speech, which was boycotted by the Green and Communist parties, Sarkozy said that "We cannot accept, in our country, women imprisoned behind a mesh, cut off from society, deprived of all identity. That is not the French Republic's idea of women's dignity." He stated that the burqa "is not a sign of religion, it is a sign of subservience."
Sarkozy himself stated that he was calling for a public debate. "A debate has to take place and all views must be expressed.", he said. "What better place than Parliament for this?" Sarkozy called for the public debate to focus on these issues, and not to become a debate over Islam itself. "We must not fight the wrong battle," he said. "In the Republic, the Muslim faith must be respected as much as other religions."
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
BRIC: The World in 2050
Brazil, Russia, India and China. These countries will be the dominant trading bloc in 2050.
Goldman Sachs argues that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China is such that they may become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050. The thesis was proposed by Jim O'Neill, global economist at Goldman Sachs. These countries encompass over twenty-five percent of the world's land coverage, forty percent of the world's population and hold a combined GDP (PPP) of 15.435 trillion dollars. On almost every scale, they would be the largest entity on the global stage. These four countries are among the biggest and fastest growing Emerging Markets.
However, it is important to note that it is not the intent of Goldman Sachs to argue that these four countries are a political alliance (such as the European Union) or any formal trading association, like ASEAN. Nevertheless, they have taken steps to increase their political cooperation, mainly as a way of influencing the United States position on major trade accords, or, through the implicit threat of political cooperation, as a way of extracting political concessions from the United States, such as the proposed nuclear cooperation with India.
Goldman Sachs predicts China and India, respectively, to be the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services while Brazil and Russia would become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. Cooperation is thus hypothesized to be a logical next step among the BRICs because Brazil and Russia together form the logical commodity suppliers to India and China. Thus, the BRICs have the potential to form a powerful economic bloc to the exclusion of the modern-day states currently of "Group of Eight" status. Brazil is dominant in soy and iron ore while Russia has enormous supplies of oil and natural gas. Goldman Sachs' thesis thus documents how commodities, work, technology, and companies have diffused outward from the United States across the world. Following the end of the Cold War or even before, the governments comprising BRIC all initiated economic or political reforms to allow their countries to enter the world economy. In order to compete, these countries have simultaneously stressed education, foreign investment, domestic consumption, and domestic entrepreneurship. According to the study, India has the potential to grow the fastest among the four BRIC countries over the next 30 to 50 years. A major reason for this is that the decline in working age population will happen later for India and Brazil than for Russia and China.
The Goldman Sachs global economics team released a follow-up report to its initial BRIC study in 2004. The report states that in BRIC nations, the number of people with an annual income over a threshold of $3,000, will double in number within three years and reach 800 million people within a decade. This predicts a massive rise in the size of the middle class in these nations. In 2025, it is calculated that the number of people in BRIC nations earning over $15,000 may reach over 200 million. This indicates that a huge pickup in demand will not be restricted to basic goods but impact higher-priced goods as well. According to the report, first China and then a decade later India will begin to dominate the world economy. Yet despite the balance of growth, swinging so decisively towards the BRIC economies, the average wealth level of individuals in the more advanced economies will continue to far outstrip the BRIC economy average. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025 the income per capita in the six most populous EU countries will exceed $35,000, whereas only about 50 million people in the BRIC economies will have similar income levels.
Mumbai, India.
The report also highlights India's great inefficiency in energy use and mentions the dramatic under-representation of these economies in the global capital markets. The report also emphasizes the enormous populations that exist within the BRIC nations, which makes it relatively easy for their aggregate wealth to eclipse the G6, while per-capita income levels remain far below the norm of today's industrialized countries. This phenomenon, too, will affect world markets as multinational corporations will attempt to take advantage of the enormous potential markets in the BRICs by producing, for example, far cheaper automobiles and other manufactured goods affordable to the consumers within the BRICs in lieu of the luxury models that currently bring the most income to automobile manufactures. India and China have already started making their presence felt in the service and manufacturing sector respectively in the global arena. Developed economies of the world have already taken a serious note of the fact.
In 2008, the top 10 countries with the most GDP are as follows
1.)- United States
2.)- Japan
3.)- China
4.)- Germany
5.)- France
6.)- United Kingdom
7.)- Italy
8.)- Russia
9.)- Spain
10.)- Brazil
In 2050
1.)- China
2.)- United States
3.)- India
4.)- Brazil
5.)- Mexico
6.)- Russia
7.)- Indonesia
8.)- Japan
9.)- United Kingdom
10.)- Germany
How will the world be different once Western Europe is more or less taken out of the world scene as major actors in global affairs? What does the emerging powers and growing middle classes in these nations mean for democracy in the future? How will a growing middle class in the BRIC nations effect their view upon much wealthier per capita countries like those of the G8?
Goldman Sachs argues that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China is such that they may become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050. The thesis was proposed by Jim O'Neill, global economist at Goldman Sachs. These countries encompass over twenty-five percent of the world's land coverage, forty percent of the world's population and hold a combined GDP (PPP) of 15.435 trillion dollars. On almost every scale, they would be the largest entity on the global stage. These four countries are among the biggest and fastest growing Emerging Markets.
However, it is important to note that it is not the intent of Goldman Sachs to argue that these four countries are a political alliance (such as the European Union) or any formal trading association, like ASEAN. Nevertheless, they have taken steps to increase their political cooperation, mainly as a way of influencing the United States position on major trade accords, or, through the implicit threat of political cooperation, as a way of extracting political concessions from the United States, such as the proposed nuclear cooperation with India.
Goldman Sachs predicts China and India, respectively, to be the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services while Brazil and Russia would become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. Cooperation is thus hypothesized to be a logical next step among the BRICs because Brazil and Russia together form the logical commodity suppliers to India and China. Thus, the BRICs have the potential to form a powerful economic bloc to the exclusion of the modern-day states currently of "Group of Eight" status. Brazil is dominant in soy and iron ore while Russia has enormous supplies of oil and natural gas. Goldman Sachs' thesis thus documents how commodities, work, technology, and companies have diffused outward from the United States across the world. Following the end of the Cold War or even before, the governments comprising BRIC all initiated economic or political reforms to allow their countries to enter the world economy. In order to compete, these countries have simultaneously stressed education, foreign investment, domestic consumption, and domestic entrepreneurship. According to the study, India has the potential to grow the fastest among the four BRIC countries over the next 30 to 50 years. A major reason for this is that the decline in working age population will happen later for India and Brazil than for Russia and China.
The Goldman Sachs global economics team released a follow-up report to its initial BRIC study in 2004. The report states that in BRIC nations, the number of people with an annual income over a threshold of $3,000, will double in number within three years and reach 800 million people within a decade. This predicts a massive rise in the size of the middle class in these nations. In 2025, it is calculated that the number of people in BRIC nations earning over $15,000 may reach over 200 million. This indicates that a huge pickup in demand will not be restricted to basic goods but impact higher-priced goods as well. According to the report, first China and then a decade later India will begin to dominate the world economy. Yet despite the balance of growth, swinging so decisively towards the BRIC economies, the average wealth level of individuals in the more advanced economies will continue to far outstrip the BRIC economy average. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025 the income per capita in the six most populous EU countries will exceed $35,000, whereas only about 50 million people in the BRIC economies will have similar income levels.
Mumbai, India.
The report also highlights India's great inefficiency in energy use and mentions the dramatic under-representation of these economies in the global capital markets. The report also emphasizes the enormous populations that exist within the BRIC nations, which makes it relatively easy for their aggregate wealth to eclipse the G6, while per-capita income levels remain far below the norm of today's industrialized countries. This phenomenon, too, will affect world markets as multinational corporations will attempt to take advantage of the enormous potential markets in the BRICs by producing, for example, far cheaper automobiles and other manufactured goods affordable to the consumers within the BRICs in lieu of the luxury models that currently bring the most income to automobile manufactures. India and China have already started making their presence felt in the service and manufacturing sector respectively in the global arena. Developed economies of the world have already taken a serious note of the fact.
In 2008, the top 10 countries with the most GDP are as follows
1.)- United States
2.)- Japan
3.)- China
4.)- Germany
5.)- France
6.)- United Kingdom
7.)- Italy
8.)- Russia
9.)- Spain
10.)- Brazil
In 2050
1.)- China
2.)- United States
3.)- India
4.)- Brazil
5.)- Mexico
6.)- Russia
7.)- Indonesia
8.)- Japan
9.)- United Kingdom
10.)- Germany
How will the world be different once Western Europe is more or less taken out of the world scene as major actors in global affairs? What does the emerging powers and growing middle classes in these nations mean for democracy in the future? How will a growing middle class in the BRIC nations effect their view upon much wealthier per capita countries like those of the G8?
Iran
It is clear that the election in Iran was a farce. An Ayatollah who runs the Interior Ministry (where all the votes were counted) actually sent and circulated an open letter commanding them to reelect the current President...
http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/07/fatwa-issued-for-changing-the-vote-in-favor-of-ahmadinejad/
The head of Iran's election commission has stated the vote was invalid...
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/followup-on-earlier-posts.html
Every candidate from the election with the exception of the President is currently under arrest...
http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2009/06/13/election-liveblogging-saturday/
And the military is out in force on the streets. It seems very likely that the military with a nod from the Supreme Leader has pulled a coup...
http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/13/spokesman-political-coup/
But what is going on in Iran is real. The anger is real. The fury is real.
Huffington has videos and a good thread following what is going on...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
The leadership in Iran made a grave error in how they bungled this election. Don't be surprised if we see an absolute revolt inside the country. The best thing Obama and everyone else in the administration can do is lie low and shut the hell up. Let the reformers inside the country fight this one through.
http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/07/fatwa-issued-for-changing-the-vote-in-favor-of-ahmadinejad/
The head of Iran's election commission has stated the vote was invalid...
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/followup-on-earlier-posts.html
Every candidate from the election with the exception of the President is currently under arrest...
http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2009/06/13/election-liveblogging-saturday/
And the military is out in force on the streets. It seems very likely that the military with a nod from the Supreme Leader has pulled a coup...
http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/13/spokesman-political-coup/
But what is going on in Iran is real. The anger is real. The fury is real.
Huffington has videos and a good thread following what is going on...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
The leadership in Iran made a grave error in how they bungled this election. Don't be surprised if we see an absolute revolt inside the country. The best thing Obama and everyone else in the administration can do is lie low and shut the hell up. Let the reformers inside the country fight this one through.
Monday, June 01, 2009
rough draft
